Prior to running a Monte Carlo schedule risk analysis on any schedule model, certain schedule model integrity criteria need to be met. Treo’s Schedule Model Integrity Assessments make recommendations to improve schedule integrity to the point where running a Monte Carlo analysis will yield results of value that can be trusted.
By example, clients may request that a Monte Carlo analysis be run to determine the probability of reaching a series of project payment milestones. The results of this type of analysis are then used to develop an accurate project cash flow forecast before the project has even begun.
Another example would be to use the results of the analysis to determine ‘by when’ and ‘at which confidence level’ a project milestone will be reached. This safeguards project sponsors, owners and managers from making unrealistic commitments to their superiors.